If you are stuck on the idea that colleges and universities are suffering (or will suffer) because of the looming enrollment cliff, you’re probably not thinking about your circumstances correctly. Gen Z, which you think should be filling your classrooms right about now, is slightly more practical than the generations that preceded it. If you’ve been paying attention, you know that from the recent Gallup survey, “trust” in higher education is at an all-time low. Gen Z possesses the lowest level of “trust” in higher education.
Trust is not inherited, and it has no relationship to the birth rate. If there were more Gen Z students in the world, they would not inherently trust your institution more.
Higher education has always been a numbers game, and not all adults go to college. In other words, there will always be a segment of the population that doesn’t choose (for whatever reason) to sit in your classrooms, pay your tuition, or see value in what you do.
If your institution happens to be a community college, the enrollment cliff theory is probably even less relevant to your looming circumstances. Community colleges serve students of all ages. In theory, if your target audience is a lot larger, then you should be somewhat insulated from factors that impact institutions whose target market is far narrower than yours.
In other words, for community colleges, the enrollment cliff is likely more of an excuse for your own failures than it is a valid explanation of why your classrooms are so quiet. You may point to your demographics to back up your claim that the birth rates in the Great Recession have translated to lower enrollments, but you may be interpreting the data incorrectly.
Higher education may not be among immediate Gen Z priorities
GenZ sees you and hears you. But they want to see the numbers first. An ECMC survey of more than 1,000 high school students sought to learn more about their thoughts on their futures. Nine out of ten respondents said that their career aspirations drive their post-secondary decisions. Nearly as many said that lifetime earnings determined their post-secondary decisions. More than eight of ten said that having a direct path to their preferred career was important, and eight of ten said that college tuition was a problem.
If you’re not astute at reading the tea leaves in this survey, start with the part about “lifetime earnings.” A typical community college degree does not currently pass Gen Z’s “lifetime earnings” test. That might be the enrollment cliff you keep yammering about, but your declining enrollment is not due to the birth rate. That’s due to the failure of community college administrators to develop academic programs that enable adult learners to achieve their career goals and address their Number Two concern – lifetime earnings.
Still not sold? Then move to having a direct path to their career aspirations. That’s Gen Z’s polite way of saying, “Can I get to my career goals without going to college?” If the answer is yes, these are the people who will never fill your classrooms because they don’t see college as a direct path to their finish line. In their minds and eyes, there’s a lot that can go wrong between “Start here, get there.” If there’s another way for them to reach their goals, they’ll find it.
As for the cost, if you’re giving away something that won’t improve Gen Z’s incomes and won’t get them to their goals, how likely are they to take it, even if it’s free?
Photo Credit: Felip1, via Flickr
