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Economy near full employment

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July unemployment figures. Overall, unemployment in the United States was 3.5%, which reflected no change from July 2022. Unemployment in Michigan declined from 4.1% in July 2022 to 3.6% last month. This marks one of the seemingly rare occasions that Michigan’s unemployment rate reflects the national average.

Additionally, the current unemployment rate mirrors that of pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that – at least as far as employment is concerned – the United States has fully recovered from COVID-19-induced economic upset.

The full-time employment rate among workers ages 16 and older was 83.2% in July 2023. The part-time employment rate was 16.8%. Right now, five out of six employed people work 35 or more hours per week.

It’s important to remember that the employment statistics don’t count everyone; they count 100% of only those people who want to participate in the labor force. In other words, people who are retired, or who voluntarily choose not to participate in the labor force don’t factor into these numbers. Right now, 98.6M people in the United States are not in the labor force. Of those, 93M are not in the labor force voluntarily.

Only about 16% of those non-workers are between the ages of 16 and 24. More than 88% of them do not currently want a job. These people may be in high school or college, or do not wish to work for another reason. The good news is that 8% more of them want a job this year than last year. (These people probably represent new graduates who have not yet landed regular employment.)

Maximizing employment opportunities requires a ready workforce

That’s not great news for community colleges, but the picture gets a little darker when looking at employment levels for persons ages 25-54. These individuals are of prime working age, and there are 1.1M fewer non-participants this July than there were last July. And one-half million fewer of them are actively looking for work today than a year ago. As one might expect, fewer workers over the age of 55 are actively seeking work, and more workers in this age group have voluntarily exited the workforce.

Life in the free-market economy means that one needs to compete for scarce resources if one is to survive. Just as workers need to improve their skills, community colleges need to improve their offerings. For example, Goldman Sachs estimates that the US may add 250,000 manufacturing jobs over the next two years, due in large part to investments by the federal government by way of the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. These acts provide funding for the construction of new manufacturing facilities for semiconductors and green technology.

Based on the readiness of the workforce in Washtenaw County, how many of those jobs will be coming here?

Photo Credit: Focal Foto